Climate change data

  • The impact of climate change on land conversion was assessed by projecting the land-use model under GCM hindcast and forecast climatic conditions. For each GCM, we projected future row crop proportions under 40 years of average hindcast conditions (i.e., assuming historical climate prevails into the future), and under 20 year of average hindcast conditions followed by 20 years of average forecast conditions. We used twenty years of forecast conditions to avoid assuming that climate changes projected for mid-century would have occurred immediately. The 20-20 assumption approximates a linear transition from the historic to future climate and is not limiting since the probabilities will converge given sufficient years under a given climate regime.

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